HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — A beautiful afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with noticeably warmer air. That warmer air is thanks to the fact that our winds have been more southerly this afternoon. With the southerly wind we not only see warmer air, but also a more moist air mass being ushered into the Tennessee Valley. This was noticed this afternoon by an increase in cloud cover this afternoon.
Clouds will continue to build through the duration of the evening and into the overnight as the southerly flow continues. Thanks to an approaching cold front our winds will also increase as the pressure gradient increases. This aspect of the forecast will be noticed as early as the evening and continue through Wednesday.
All of the above comes with our next opportunity for severe weather in the Tennessee Valley. This is common for November. A bigger cold front comes through and the ingredients are there for strong or severe storms.
The SPC does have the entire Tennessee Valley under a Marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday afternoon. The biggest concern will be some damaging winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.
By the lunch hour on Wednesday some scattered showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms will be possible. With little or no CAPE to work with, this activity should be non-severe.
While still not terribly impressive, CAPE values do rise through Wednesday afternoon with daytime heating. The afternoon and through the evening is when we see our best chance for any severe weather.
While the CAPE may not be the most impressive, there will be a fair amount of wind shear. Remember that wind shear is a change in wind direction with altitude. This means rotating updrafts will be possible.
This activity will clear the Tennessee Valley by the overnight as the cold front moves through North Alabama.
Beyond any opportunity for severe weather, Thanks giving looks fantastic. Temperatures will cooperate for outdoor dinners and there will be plenty of sunshine.
Other chances for rain move into the Tennessee Valley this weekend and next week.