First off, I’m incredibly distracted by the fact that it seems unrealistically humid INSIDE this news studio. I went ahead and bumped the AC down hoping that’ll help, but it just seems unnatural to feel this humid inside a building. It’s Tuesday and I’m struggling to come up with a blog topic despite the busy weekend. I’m usually not one to create long range forecasts, which is hard because Memorial Day is next Monday and Jubilee is this weekend, so despite my distaste for super long range forecasting I feel obligated to center this weeks blogs around both events. Jubilee is especially weather dependent so heading into tomorrow and Thursday, I’ll probably focus on that more.
Looking at the models this morning, I noticed broad ridging over the southeast ushering in some drier air over the next couple days. PWAT values are also lowering a bit and heights at the 500mb level are slightly elevated. That would indicate slight high pressure and therefor a more stable environment. I don’t expect this to last for long, because our next big weather maker is already developing off the coast of Central America.
That weather maker is in the form of a broad area of low pressure that will eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Right now, it’s sitting smack in the middle of Central America and Cuba. It does look like it’ll strengthen come Friday and Saturday, but it doesn’t look like anything tropical will come of this. The big reason for that is the fact that is has to travel through an area of stronger wind shear aloft before it gets into the Gulf of Mexico which will weaken it before it can strengthen again in the decently warm Gulf. Sometimes shear is good and other times it’s not so good, but I think that’ll be tomorrow’s blog.
There are still some difference between the GFS and EURO especially when it comes to the overall track of this system . The GFS favors a more easterly track heading into Florida and Southern Georgia, while the EURO is going in the opposite direction towards New Orleans and towards western Mississippi. If the EURO track happens and the system goes more west, then I expect a slightly wetter setup for the weekend.
I have already noticed increased PWAT values that will be near or above the two inch mark, and with increased instability we could see some thunderstorm activity. Given a lack of shear I do not expect anything in the way of severe weather this weekend.
The moral here. Plan now for what could be a wet weekend in the Tennessee Valley.