The entire Tennessee valley remains under a slight risk for severe weather Monday afternoon and Monday Evening will all modes of severe weather possible.
This round of severe weather is thanks to an area of low pressure and a very strong associated cold front. The area of low pressure will lift north/northeast through the day Monday bringing the cold front through Monday evening and during the overnight.
Currently, we sit in the warm sector of this system with a warm front sitting to our north. This will prevent temperatures from falling off tonight, and allow us to warm tomorrow into the upper 60s and even lower 70s. It will also allow dewpoints to rise into the lower 60s thanks to the aforementioned southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico.
There are a couple of things that could limit our severe weather potential would be an overabundance of cloud cover limiting our abilities to destabilize with some passing morning showers that will remain non-severe.
From there the main line associated with the cold front will move through mid-afternoon and exit the area early into the overnight.
The other limiting factor would be the fact that the severe weather risk is greater to our south. Storms to our south could pull in the energy from the north limiting our potential in North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee.
Again, this will be an afternoon and evening event beginning after lunch across NW Alabama and ending early overnight in NE Alabama. The greatest threat for severe weather is west of the I-65 corridor.
The main threats with this round continue to be damaging winds and a few tornadoes. This does NOT look like it’ll be an outbreak, but a few tornadoes are possible given the atmospheric setup.
Large hail looks to be the smallest threat, but still worth being mindful of.
Localized flooding is also a possibility. This line of showers and thunderstorms will bring at least 1.00″ to much of the Tennessee Valley with locally higher amounts very possible.
It is imperative that everyone knows the difference between a watch and a warning. watches can be in effect for several hours and span a large time period. Warnings are usually short-lived and pose a more immediate threat.
We have seen a quiet year in regards to severe weather, so it is important you are aware of your plan and have multiple ways to receive updates.