Good evening Tennessee Valley and a very happy Thursday! Not a bad day across the Tennessee Valley as the morning cloud cover gave way to plentiful amounts of afternoon sunshine. That didn’t really help temperatures warm as high temperatures only managed to squeeze into the upper 30s and a couple lower 40s. Keep in mind average for late January is right around 51 degrees. Given persistent northerly flow tomorrow we’ll basically see another today with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 30s.
It looks like our very broad troughing pattern will finally come to an end with the passage of a very weak system. Until the latest runs the models have kept us dry, but now they’re trying to bring in the chance of a passing rain shower especially across southern middle Tennessee. Given a slow change in wind direction on Sunday we will see more moisture pumped into the area, but I’m just not sure if it’ll be enough to support much in the way of any shower development.
With zonal flow on Monday it’ll be more of a transition day as our next system develops over the upper Midwest. This system comes in the form of an upper level trough and a closed low that will eventually form very early Tuesday morning. Naturally this does have an associated cold front that will push through the Tennessee Valley Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Models are being rather consistent in the idea that we’ll see some snow or other frozen precipitation with this system. It looks like we would see a transition from rain to snow between 06z and 12z with all precipitation coming to an end just beyond the lunch hour. Given that we are several days out it is still too early to discuss any accumulation.
From there some of the coldest air of the season looks to move in for Wednesday and Thursday.