Good evening Tennessee Valley and a very Happy Thursday! A mostly cloudy afternoon with only a few glimpses of sunshine. Still temperatures have been able to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Tennessee Valley. That, thanks to strong warm air advection. Our quiet day will quickly change though as showers are expected to return overnight and then through much of the day Friday.
The rain chances come from a still strengthening area of low pressure associated with an upper level trough that is still sitting just to our west over Texas. That low pressure does come with an associated warm front that is sitting well to our south along the Gulf coast. As the parent low continues to gradually move east and a smidge north the warm front will also lift north. The rotation around the low will also keep our winds well out of the south which will help to keep us warm, but also pump in plenty of moisture. The warm front will provide the forcing mechanism that would aid in the development of some thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The biggest threat here would be strong winds and small hail.
When it’s all said and done rain totals will be near an inch in most locations with locally much higher amounts. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if someone sees 1.5 inches of rain by the end of the day Saturday. This is not rain we need. The Shoals are looking at a small surplus with 2.48” of rain this month, but Huntsville is a different story. With 3.46” of rain so far we are talking about a surplus of 1.08”.
Temperatures Friday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, but a change in wind direction should knock those back into the low 50s on Saturday.
Ridging looks to set in come the early part of next week, which should keep us dry and mostly sunny. Good thing too since it’s the last shopping week before Christmas. Now I did notice a small system developing by 00Z Thursday, but that looked to weaken before making its way into the Tennessee Valley. Still thanks to a bigger system well to the north does have the EURO bringing in some rain next Thursday. As always, that’s a week out so we wont concern ourselves with that just yet.