Good evening Tennessee Valley, and a very happy Sunday! After a day of widespread shower activity many of us have picked up at least 0.25” with much more to come as we go through a good part of the overnight. The good news? The morning was dry and we did manage to climb into the lower 60s early this afternoon. The rain will very gradually come to an end through the early hours of Monday as a cold front continues to push east.
President’s Day looks to be dry and we’ll even get to enjoy some sunshine especially late morning and then through the afternoon. I still see a possibility that our high temperature could occur early in the day and would then drop through the rest of the afternoon.
Looking at the upper levels through much of next week there really isn’t a whole lot in the way of change. There will be an upper level trough well back to our west with an associated area of low pressure and there will be an area of high pressure sitting to our east out in the Atlantic Ocean kind of to our south over the Caribbean. It looks like we will sit under the influence of this pattern Wednesday – Friday of next week, and this means we could see a lot of rain fall across the Tennessee Valley as a result of extreme southerly flow.
I expect Tuesday will start dry, but clouds will filter in very quickly and many of us will begin to see rain back into the area by the lunch hour. From there moderate to heavy rain will be the theme though the rest of the day. PWAT values with both the GFS and the EURO are consistently 1.25” – 1.5” through almost all next week.
This brings about a serious chance for flooding with many locations across the Tennessee Valley looking at the potential of seeing 9” – 10” of rain by next Saturday the 23rd.
Given the plentiful moisture and series of troughs that will move in from the west giving us the pattern mentioned above I am also not ruling out a few embedded thunderstorms basically Tuesday and beyond.
It doesn’t look like we’ll see a completely dry day until Monday February 25, 2019.