Good evening Tennessee Valley and a very happy Sunday! Not an awful day across the Tennessee Valley though we only saw just a bit of sunshine. Temperatures still managed to warm this afternoon with a high of 56 degrees. No complaints there as that’s still a few degrees above average. With incredibly strong southerly flow at the 850mb level temperatures will soar for NYE into the upper 60s and some will see 70 degrees. That does come with a drawback and that drawback would be the opportunity for severe weather.
This all starts with an area of low pressure developing to our west. That area of low pressure will continue to propagate north through the overnight dragging a warm front north with it. For that reason we could see a few scattered showers through the overnight and early Monday morning. With that in mind I still think many of us will wake up and start the first half of the day dry Monday.
With the aforementioned low there is a cold front that will slide east as the low goes NE. Ahead of that cold front will be a decent line of showers and some strong thunderstorms that will be here by the middle of the afternoon and continue through the early part of the evening. From here we have the stereotypical setup for severe weather. We have the cold front, we have the heat and the moisture thanks to the southerly flow, but we don’t have much in the way of CAPE. We need the CAPE for the development of tornadoes, but we do have the shear. Remember shear is a change in wind speed and direction with height. With what little instability we have combined with the shear a couple quick tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Still the main threats look to be strong winds with wind gusts nearing the 50mph or 60mph mark, and heavy rain. The highest rain totals this time look to be across NW Alabama which thinking about the fact that Lauderdale County is under a flood warning “until further notice” isn’t the greatest news.
This will all pass well before midnight and we should enter 2019 generally quiet with the exception of a few passing showers. The rest of Tuesday looks to remain dry and feature a few peaks of sunshine.