Good evening Tennessee Valley, and a very happy Saturday! In theory I could make this discussion rather short but we’ll see if that actually happens. Rain will push into the area tonight, and it looks like it’ll hang around through much of the day tomorrow. This will be thanks to a return in southerly flow that will bring some decently warm and moist air back to the Tennessee Valley. I do expect high temperatures will be in the low and mid-60s, but we won’t see much in the way of any sunshine. When tomorrow’s rain is all said and done some of us will pick up anywhere from 0.5” – 1” of rain, and this is just the beginning.
President’s Day looks to be relatively dry and we may even get a few peeks of sunshine as well. I see a cold front coming through sometime late Sunday or early Monday and that could mean a decrease in temperatures through President’s Day. CAA will also take over which will not help our temperature case.
Looking at the upper levels through much of next week there really isn’t a whole lot in the way of change. There will be an upper level trough well back to our west with an associated area of low pressure and there will be an area of high pressure sitting to our east out in the Atlantic Ocean kind of to our south over the Caribbean. It looks like we will sit under the influence of this pattern Tuesday – Thursday of next week, and this means we could see a lot of rain fall across the Tennessee Valley as a result of extreme southerly flow.
After a break from the shower activity on Monday the rain will start again sometime next Tuesday. From there it just really doesn’t look like it’ll stop much. PWAT values with both the GFS and the EURO are consistently 1.25” – 1.5” through this period next week. Rain will be persistent, but at times heavy.
This brings about a serious chance for flooding with many locations across the Tennessee Valley looking at the potential of seeing 9” – 10” of rain by next Saturday the 23rd.
We may see a brief break in the shower activity next Friday, but models were bringing in another system next Saturday before we finally dry out next Sunday the 24th.