Good evening Tennessee Valley and a very happy Friday! Once again, the afternoon, featured ample sunshine that did nothing for us in terms of warming temperatures. High temperatures only managed to creep into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Remember we should be in the lower 50s this time of year. Clouds will increase through the overnight, but once again it’ll be cold in the mid and upper 20s.
A very weak system pushing north tonight, and very early tomorrow morning will attempt to bring a passing snow shower through the early morning hours on Saturday. This is nothing to worry about, and while it could put a light dusting on the grassy surfaces I do not anticipate road issues if you’re commuting early Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday afternoon will feature a fair mix of sunshine and cloud cover. With high pressure still sitting to our south and an upper level trough west, winds will be more southerly and that’ll help temperatures warm on Sunday into the upper 40s.
The aforementioned upper level trough axis will push through on Sunday. Given the slight southerly flow I am once again not ruling out a passing shower Sunday morning or Sunday afternoon for that matter, but it does look like most of us will end up remaining dry.
Monday will serve as somewhat of a transition as our next system develops and deepens over the upper Midwest. This is slightly good news because southerly flow will be on the increase and temperatures will be in the mid and even upper 50s.
This developing system over the upper Midwest has an area of low pressure that will move east north of the Great Lakes. Still it is this area of low pressure and an associated cold front that will bring the chance for some snow to the Tennessee Valley. There are still many questions with this, more questions than answers at this point. With the cold front passing early in the morning, Tuesday it does seem clear that there will be snow. What is not clear is how much will fall. Both the GFS and EURO are suggesting at least 2 inches. The problem comes where it could take a couple hours to cool the surface down from the upper 50s on Monday.
With that in mind there is no reason to panic yet. I will continue to keep you updated through the weekend as the forecast develops. The interesting thing with this storm is that it is responsible for its own moisture. Normally when we talk snow in the Tennessee Valley it comes with systems along the Gulf that can tap into that moisture. This storm isn’t like that.
We will dry out for Wednesday and Thursday, but we could see some of the coldest air so far this winter season. The models aren’t handling temperatures very well so more on that later.