It seems pretty well known that I am anything but content with writing a traditional blog with a traditional forecast. I like to have fun throw a spin on the blog that keeps it decently exciting while still informational and providing you with any needed information when it comes to planning the next couple of days or in this case the weekend.
So, in today’s weather blog I decided to not use pictures rather I thought I would use GIFs. I decided to take it one step further and use GIFs from the images I look at when making my forecast as opposed to using the standard weather graphics you see Maggie and I use on TV.
It’s no secret what the forecast holds. It’s going to rain, snow, and get really cold. All of that will occur over a 24-hour period. I guess that’s the nature of things especially when you get big cold fronts like the one that’s coming.
The forecast all starts in the upper most levels at 250mb to be exact. 250mb is converted to about 30,000 – 35,000 feet or the level where standard commercial airliners fly. There an upper level trough is taking shape back off to our west and will continue to develop and deepen this afternoon before pushing east tomorrow. Sitting just west of the area by the end of the day southwest flow will take hold. Once the axis comes through on Sunday, we’ll see a transition from winds out of the south to winds out of the north. Behind this trough is an upper level ridge.
Moving down to the 850mb level, we’ll be able to clearly see the passage of the cold front. At 850mb temperature advection is very easily noticeable and is best for viewing cold fronts and warm fronts. These are usually noted by a change in temperature and wind direction like we see here. Through the first half of the day Saturday winds will be strongly out of the south advecting in very warm air. As time advances through the day the cold front will push through the Tennessee Valley. That begins around noon across NW Alabama, and the front will push east from there through the rest of the afternoon. As it does winds will change direction allowing CAA to take over on Sunday, making for a cold second half of the weekend.
Given the warm moist air being advected in and the cold front the conclusion of rain can be drawn. The GFS and EURO are in decent agreement on this with heavy rain coming through over the course of the afternoon, and maybe even a few thunderstorms.
The Storm prediction center has placed most of the Tennessee Valley under a Marginal risk for severe weather. The main threat here would be damaging winds. Regardless it does look like it’ll be windy Saturday afternoon especially in the afternoon.
With the passage of the cold front some of the residual rain behind it will transition to a little bit of very light snow through the earliest hours of Sunday morning before we dry out by the afternoon.
The GFS and EURO also agree that snow accumulations will be minimal to non-existent. The thing is that high temperatures will be in the lower 60s before the cold front on Saturday and given that highs are in the mid and upper 50s today the surface will be way to warm despite the rapid cool down. This means that there will be no sledding Sunday afternoon or Monday when there’s no school.
You can enjoy the total lunar eclipse Sunday night as skies will be clear. It will be cold though. Details on the eclipse can be found in yesterday’s blog.