Weather Blog: Don’t get comfy

News

I woke up this morning and to my wondering eyes what did appear? The sunshine and plenty of blue sky! Of course, given the clearing that occurred overnight, temperatures managed to drop into the low and mid-20s across the Tennessee Valley. This means my car had a very nice layer of frost on it this morning. 

The sunshine will stick around this afternoon and temperatures will climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. I would highly suggest getting outside and enjoying the overall fantastic weather while you can because it will come to an end in the rather immediate future. These changes are the topic of today’s blog. 

A small quick moving upper level system will pass by to the north tomorrow. This will bring cloudy skies and scattered showers beginning in the morning and lasting through the entire afternoon. Rain totals will be small, and the day will not be a complete wash. 

Friday will be somewhat of a transition day. A small upper level ridge will push in with the ridge axis sitting almost directly over the Tennessee Valley. At the same time SW flow will be on the increase thanks to our next big system. I expect a mostly cloudy to overcast sky to close the workweek. 

The next big system comes in the form of an upper level low with an associated warm front and a strong cold front. The warm front will help temperatures rise into the upper 50s on Friday and lower 60s on Saturday.   

Once again, this low is forecast to pass just to our north bringing in ample moisture thanks to large SW flow through the day on Saturday. That’s the good news. Those on the north side of the low up across Kentucky and Ohio will be looking at another big snowfall for the weekend with those of us south looking at another big rain event. That’s the bad news if you have travel plans since the kids have no school on Monday. Now there are some different possibilities in the track that could mean more or less snow for our friends to the north. 

Rain totals this time will be high and we could see 1.25 – 2.00 inches of rain just Saturday. 

The bigger story will be the cold front that will come through Saturday evening and early into the overnight. Once the cold front passes strong CAA will take over, and both the GFS and the EURO are hinting at a change to a little snow. Model runs through the last few days have been very light with accumulations at less than 0.5”.

The strong CAA will continue into Sunday and that means we could be looking at some of the coldest air we’ve seen across the Tennessee Valley since this time last year. Highs on Sunday could finish in the 30s with lows Monday morning in the upper teens and lower 20s. 
 

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