Today is August 1st. It starts the last full month of Meteorological summer and is a sure sign it’s time for the kids to return to school for another year. Best of luck to all of you! We’re also now getting into the heart of hurricane season.
To date, the 2019 season has been quiet. We’ve only seen two named storms in the Atlantic, and only one of those actually made landfall on the continental United States.
Things are beginning to ramp up though. Right now, there are two different disturbances sitting in the Atlantic Ocean. The first is sitting just off the Florida Peninsula and dumping heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Bahamas. It has an incredibly low chance of further development and poses no additional threat to the United States. It will eventually track NE staying well east of the east coast of the United States. The second is still well out in the Atlantic. This disturbance is expected to strengthen over the next five days and gain Tropical Depression status as early as this weekend.
Given our upper-level pattern that is ridge west and trough east, I expect this storm will have a difficult time getting close to the United States. It is still way too early to make any sort of conclusion on that matter, but it is an early observation.
The point of this blog is to stress that the above discussed increased activity is actually right on schedule. Historically the number of named storms sharply increases between August 1st and the end of October.
Not only does the number of named storms increase, but the number of named storms that become hurricanes also increases between the same period.
This means we should exercise caution when making beach plans. I don’t want you to cancel your plans, I just want you to be mindful that if a storm is forecast you can plan accordingly.