Every year millions of people put the fate of an early Spring in the hands of a legendary rodent. Once a year Phil comes out of his home and makes a bold prediction. When he’s not living in his little home, does he understand the pressure he’s under? Spring or Winter? He has to forecast that!
The sad part is, that according to the calendar Spring is still weeks away! It’s not like if Phil calls for Spring then we just change the season to Spring.
After a little research, it was time to find out if Phil’s predictions are accurate in the Tennessee Valley. To decide this the Pinpoint Weather Team looked back at Phil’s predictions and compared them to the average daily high temperature in the corresponding February. We then compared that to the climatological February average.
So, for example, we looked at his prediction for 2018 then we found the average high in February 2018 and compared that to the climatological average February high. If the average for the year was lower then Winter stuck around. If the average was higher then Spring came early.
The average high temperature in February is 55.9°
|Year||Phil’s Prediction||Average High||Result|
|2018||More Winter||63.9°||Phil was wrong|
|2017||More Winter||63.8°||Phil was wrong|
|2016||Early Spring||56.7°||Phil was right|
|2015||More Winter||47.0°||Phil was right|
|2014||More Winter||52.9°||Phil was right|
|2013||Early Spring||53.9°||Phil was wrong|
|2012||More Winter||59.3°||Phil was wrong|
|2011||Early Spring||58.6°||Phil was right|
|2010||More Winter||47.0°||Phil was right|
|2009||More Winter||57.6°||Phil was wrong|
|2008||More Winter||56.8°||Phil was wrong|
|2007||Early Spring||51.8°||Phil was wrong|
|2006||More Winter||51.6°||Phil was right|
|2005||More Winter||57.3°||Phil was wrong|
|2004||More Winter||51.2°||Phil was right|
|2003||More Winter||51.6°||Phil was right|
|2002||More Winter||54.7°||Phil was right|
|2001||More Winter||57.6°||Phil was wrong|
|2000||More Winter||62.4°||Phil was wrong|
Phil was wrong 10/19 predictions. Of course, that means he was right 9/19 tries. That means Punxsutawney Phil only got 47% of predictions correct.