Honestly I picked today’s title so I could have an excuse to use the gif below this paragraph into the blog. I mean it is going to rain again, but the gif is rather infamous and I needed a logical excuse to use it. I know you’re reading this blog and already angry because after a weekend of rain the last thing you want is more rain. The gif will also serve as the comic relief for this blog.
As far as the rain last weekend is concerned, it is safe to say we saw a lot. Looking at the first 11 days of December, we have already seen 3.46 inches of rain this month. Obviously the vast majority of that has fallen over the last weekend. Still that puts us at a 1.48 inch surplus in regards to what is average for being 11 days into the month. That would put us well on the way to meeting our surpassing the monthly average of 5.77 inches.
The good news here would be that the CPC is putting the Tennessee Valley at a 33% probability of being below average in regards to precipitation. It’s important to pay attention to the dates though, as they fall just outside the 7-day forecast. I point that out because as the title suggests it’s going to rain, and that rain falls inside the 7-day forecast.
Today and tomorrow will feature a small ridge of high pressure that will actually be flattened a bit as a small trough and associated low pass across the Great Lakes. The NAM 3km was trying to suggest some light rain would be the result of this on Wednesday, but I have an incredibly hard time believing that. Instead our focus will be on a developing system that will be over Texas and Oklahoma by the end of the day Thursday. Through Thursday the area of low pressure associated with this system will quickly strengthen and looks to continue that trend even as we get into Friday.
As the low strengthens and the trough deepens southerly flow will greatly increase into the Tennessee Valley. That means we’ll have more than enough moisture, but it also means temperatures will warm for the second half of the workweek. As of the latest run of the GFS CAPE values are minimal to non-existent implying severe weather chances are also minimal. The one thing I did notice was an increase in wind speeds Thursday night and Friday morning.
The GFS and EURO were on slightly different ends of the spectrum when it comes to total precipitation. The GFS was going high with rainfall totals anywhere from 1.0-1.8” while the EURO was lower anywhere from 0.5-1.0”. The timing for this event would be Thursday night through the first ¾ of the day Friday. Come Friday night and Saturday any shower activity would become much more scattered.
With this latest round of rain still a few days out, this blog is not to be taken as a forecast. In all reality the blog is to almost never be taken as a forecast as I intend for these to be more informational with a smidge of sarcasm to keep things fun.